Beijing's dimmer has two timers on it

China produced 99% of the world's primary low-purity gallium in 2025, and Beijing still has two timers on its export-control dial. The No. 70 pause ended on 10 November. No. 58 of 2026 has been in force from 11 November, continuing the rare-earth and battery pause to 10 January 2027. The separate gallium pause still ends on 27 November. Western Australia is wiring a second circuit, but construction only began in August.

Some switches aren't on or off. They're dimmers, and whoever holds the dial decides how bright the room gets.

For gallium and germanium, Beijing holds the dial. China accounted for 99% of the world's primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). It was also the leading producer and exporter of germanium metal. USGS lists high-performance computers among the uses of gallium chips, and data-networking fibre among the uses of germanium. That 99% is unrefined metal, not every step to a finished chip. Right now the dial has two timers on it. Only one has been reset by a numbered notice.

Who set the timers?

Beijing did, in two notices issued a year ago, plus a third published on 9 November.

The first is Announcement No. 70, dated 7 November 2025. It suspended six export-control announcements from October 2025 until 10 November 2026. That package includes controls on five rare earths (holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium), lithium batteries of 300 Wh/kg and above, cathode and graphite anode materials, and Announcement No. 61, which would require a Chinese licence for certain foreign-made magnets and targets with 0.1% or more Chinese rare earth content by value and put some advanced chip and AI end uses on case-by-case review.

On 9 November 2026, MOFCOM and Customs published Announcement No. 58 of 2026. It continues the pause on the same six announcements from 11 November 2026 to 10 January 2027. No. 70's own text ran until 10 November. As of the morning of 12 November that period has ended, and the new notice has been in force since 11 November. It does not name No. 72, gallium or 27 November.

The second original notice is Announcement No. 72, dated 9 November 2025. It suspends paragraph two of a December 2024 notice, No. 46, until 27 November 2026. That paragraph says US-bound gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials are in principle not permitted, and puts US-bound graphite on stricter end-user and end-use review. The military-user ban in paragraph one was never paused. When I opened No. 72 again on the morning of 12 November, that 27 November end date was unchanged.

The room has gone dark before. US imports of germanium metal fell an estimated 67% in 2025, which the USGS germanium summary puts down to China's ban. European germanium metal of 99.999% purity rose from US$3,150/kg in January 2025 to $5,380/kg in October.

Didn't they extend the truce?

Yes. First in a press statement, then in a numbered notice for one of the two timers.

MOFCOM said in a 28 September statement that the two sides had agreed to extend the Kuala Lumpur arrangement to 10 January 2027. That statement named neither No. 70 nor No. 72, and said nothing about gallium or 27 November.

Then, on 9 November, No. 58 of 2026 continued the rare-earth and battery pause to 10 January 2027. When I checked the ministry's main policy-releases list on the morning of 12 November, No. 58 of 2026 was listed, dated 9 November. I found no item amending No. 72. Lists can still lag.

My bet was Beijing publishes something before the clicks, because letting the timers run out would blow up a truce both sides just said they wanted. They did, for one timer. The other still runs to 27 November. I'd be lying if I said I knew what happens to that one. Until a numbered notice moves it, plan for 27 November.

Can anyone wire a second switch?

Australia is trying, at Alcoa's Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia.

Gallium is recovered mostly as a by-product of processing bauxite, USGS says, so an alumina refinery is the obvious place to tap it. The Alcoa-Sojitz project reached final investment decision on 15 July 2026, and construction began at a ceremony on 24 August. Planned capacity is 100 tonnes a year. Resources Minister Madeleine King says that once fully operational it is expected to produce up to 10% of world gallium supply.

That's a real second circuit. It is also a building site. Expected capacity is not metal in a customer's warehouse, and Wagerup does nothing for germanium.

So here's my read. Buyers should watch the numbered notices, not the diplomatic headline. One timer is now 10 January; the other still ends on 27 November. Investors should watch the gap between a construction ceremony and saleable output. A second circuit helps. It still has to carry current.

Across the build-out

Policy. Watch numbered MOFCOM notices, not another statement. As of the 12 November morning check, No. 58 of 2026 has been in force from 11 November 2026 to 10 January 2027; No. 72 still ends on 27 November 2026; No. 70 ran through 10 November 2026 and that period has now ended.

Copper. Record copper prices of $14,759/t were cited in a 22 October Wood Mackenzie release, with US stockpiling pushing domestic inventory cover above 170 days against 48 days elsewhere. The same release gives two rest-of-world deficit figures, 450,000 and 460,000 tonnes, so the exact number is unclear. It expects global mine supply to grow by more than 5% next year.

Rare earths. Lynas reported September-quarter gross sales revenue of A$310.1 million, its highest since Q4 FY22, and a record average selling price of A$102.1/kg. Floor-price agreements now cover over 50% of production. It expects a planned shutdown of about a month in Malaysia to lower December-quarter production, according to its ASX release on 29 October.

Refine. Canberra's refreshed Critical Minerals Strategy, launched on 27 October, "places greater emphasis on processing and refining critical minerals", Minister King said at launch. She listed the Alcoa-Sojitz Gallium Recovery Project among the investments existing initiatives had helped unlock.

The number

That's it from me this week.

Mission Critical follows the AI revolution from the mine to the mind: the minerals and how they're mined and refined, the chips and the factories, the geopolitics, markets and prices, the software, and what it all means for jobs and for people. By Cameron Drummond.

If your company needs a feature, a briefing paper or research on anything above, reply to any Mission Critical email.

Cam

Disclosure: At the time of writing, Cameron Drummond holds no shares in any company named in this issue.

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